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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • The winner in the general election will almost certainly be a Democrat, but California has an open, top-two primary. If left-leaning voters can unite behind a second Democratic candidate, and Republican voters split their votes between two or more candidates, it’s plausible that the general election could come down to Harris and a second Democrat to her left.

    Republicans who have already demonized Harris after the 2024 campaign might then vote for the other Democrat, just on the basis of their negative view of Harris—so Harris being in the race could swing the election further to the left.