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Joined 8 months ago
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Cake day: August 8th, 2024

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  • Flapping your arms and gums about WHAT he’s done is less important to think about than WHY has he done this. It’s ridiculous and irrational on it’s face.

    But - it makes perfect sense if you start from a place that this is a colossal distraction. But why? Well - ultimately, if you accept that Trump works for Putin, then consider that the Russians are unable to defeat Ukraine right now on the battlefield, given the support that they continue to get from Europe. Putin and Trump have collaborated to remove US support - mission accomplished. But - they don’t have direct leverage over Europe to try and erode European support for ukraine as well. So - if you’re starting from a place that you wanted Russia to win and that’s the ONLY thing you care about…what would you do? How can you erode Europe’s ability to support Ukraine?

    Initiate a devastating global recession to destroy governments’ ability to focus on supporting Ukraine, and hope that they crawl back to supporting their own economies.

    That’s the answer. This is ALL happening

    a) because Russia is starting to lose, and will lose very bigly and very quickly…soon b) Trump is 80 years old, and his window of being able to help Putin is closing with every Big Mac and Diet Coke he eats c) Putin himself is in advanced age and probably declining health d) Russia’s equipment reserves are passing replacement rate levels, which leads to a MAJOR degradation in their offensive potential. Things don’t get a little worse - they’re getting EXPONENTIALLY worse e) Since they can’t directly stop European aid, they are trying to do it indirectly by initiating a global recession and trade war.

    Just opinions, you’re under no obligation to agree. But - what else makes sense? The only other thing I could reasonably accept if it wasn’t 100% that Trump works for Russia, is that somehow along the tarriffs chain, that he is skimming a percentage, like a classic Mafia casino scam. He may well be doing that as well as aiding Russia. But he’s certainly not doing all of this - and excluding Russia, Belarus and Hungary from tarriffs - for no particular reason at all. The reasons are fairly damn obvious.


  • This story comes out every year, when russia announces their normal conscription process. These enlistees a) go to basic training - which for Russians is totally insufficient to make a difference on the ukrainian battlefield, b) can’t and haven’t been used for offensive operations, c) Mostly cycle back to civilian life when they’re done. This isn’t special, it isn’t news, and if he were stupid enough to rush these guys from their jobs as delivery drivers, baristas, IT support and tire shop technicians into the battlefields, the entirety of them would be chewed up in about 3 months. This isn’t a story. This is their normal conscription process.


  • As is usually the case, Trump has badly overplayed his hand without actually having even a fraction of the leverage he assumes he does. The US is rapidly making themselves utterly irrelevant to the process. Ukraine seems to clearly understand that the only way for a lasting peace is to erode Russia’s warmaking capability permanently. They can continue to fight at this intensity with drones and small territorial exchanges for a long, long time yet, even if the US fully withdraws all support.

    Trump going further and actively aiding Russia is a) insane b) not implausible and c) would result in American deaths that he would then have to explain a justification for, in a war that is allegedly none of america’s business anyways. No serious minded person expects Russia to abide by ANY peace deal in the long term, so from Ukraine’s perspective, it makes much more sense to keep fighting. It’s fight for your lasting freedom, or wait for another round of attempted enslavement.

    The frantic speed run to try and strong arm Ukraine into an unjust peace is failing. It’s very telling that they’re turning the crazy up to 11, because he is nearly 80 years old, morbidly obese, lives on KFC and insane hatred. And if Russia could do any more than they currently are, they would have already done it. It’s a ridiculous bluff, Ukraine and their European backers have called it. For Europe, the degree of danger is not abstract or a partisan issue to score cheap political points off of. They’re going to give Ukraine what it needs to continue bleeding out Russia, at least long enough for Putin, Trump or both to die off.