the pampered boot is the pampered boot, no matter the windowdressing it applies

thrice

the worst talos principle dlc

“what if my CEO god-king decides not to follow my plan” is a thesis even the worst startup founders have muddled through and I find it repeatedly funny as fuck that this mediocre monster of a man is hitting it

maybe it’s indicative of other things? maybe he believed so hard in the plan that he misjudged felon’s ability? maybe felon just conned him easily? extremely possible on multiple fronts, and still just as funny

imagine how fucking frustrated the little shitgoblin must be. it makes my angry heart flutter!

if I were to make any predictive guesses about this at all (and I know the possible folly herein): probably the biggest issue with this is that he’ll try use it as a beacon for others (thiel? thiel-shaped people) to put effort behind “correcting the path”

and there’s enough ghouls invested in this to try that a not-insignificant amount

aww, poor baby, he didn’t consider the risk of incentives around an avaricious power-hungry narcissist! whoops! what an utterly embarrassing and predictable mistake to make

(get fucked moldbug)

This is extremely confusing from the outside

understandable! and it’s messy in the weeds, because the loons have been talking about and doing absolutely crazy shit for a long time

And I don’t know where does this Lemmy community fit into all of this.

so, before I answer, I’ll tell you upfront that you’ll probably hate what you learn. that said, see the sidebar for some links and descriptions

the community (techtakes, sneerclub) can be loosely described as a collective of people who’ve, for some reason or another, found themselves caring- /having to care about/encountering/etc one or more of the loons in the subject groups, and then needing a place to vent about it

partly this is because these loons are extremely influential in tech and related spheres, and have been becoming ever more so in recent political pushes in the US. much of yarvin’s thought is directly influencing current US government policy, and all the harms that is causing people. the current stock market bonfire? yeah, these fucking guys.

Sounds good - being rational is obviously a good thing

there’s a difference between “being rational” and capital-R Rationalism (which is what’s involved from yud/lesswrong/etc)

nice reads about rational thought

on paper, that’s the pitch. in practice, it’s cult shit. it’s also self-reinforced for years against any actual expertise - all the fuckers in this scene don’t want to learn from anyone “outside”, and they do an extreme amount of mental gymnastics to justify their various beliefs (which frequently include scientific racism, eugenics, etc)

if you listen to podcasts, Behind The Bastards has featured episodes of (Curtis) Yarvin in the last 2y, as well as another (very recently) on Ziz. all these go into a fair amount of detail about these people. but, again, warning: you will hate what you learn.

think there was a mod note a while ago (@dgerard? I think?) that nsfw was no longer required

same. I’d known quite a depth of detail, but had never gotten as deep as the innards of those quotes from conference conversations

super healthy and normal situations.

let’s not (even in jest)

I was not aware of this, failed my constitution roll, and have taken psychic damage

[wailing intensifies]

Technically he doesn’t have connections to Thiel directly.

minor nit: known connections. while “thielbucks laundered through 17 cutouts get used to fund useful idiots for stochastic terrorism to whip up an anti-trans panic” is a hypothetical I just pulled out of my ass for demonstration, it’s also too fucking plausible in the current state of affairs

I have no idea how likely that scenario is, and just to be clear I’m not saying that anything like it did happen. more pointing towards thielbucks are in so of the bad places doing harm atm, that sort of thing. so much so that I’d be hesitant to concretely exclude anyone/anything from that without some data to back it up

every so often, gear techs involved with filming interviews can do silently heroic things

I don’t know if this is a case of that, but given the skin shine from reflections, whoever set this up wasn’t trying overly hard to make him look good. good on 'em

holy fuck this is incredible

reminds me: earlier today I saw a toot reflecting on “it’s not radical to have $x. the american right have just dragged it so far away that gov doing it’s job is now radical”. topical

their problem with punching nazis is how many of their friends would take objection to suddenly being punched mid-conversation

I haven’t checked but I wouldn’t be surprised if this came from the period when he was taking so many substances it fucked his health

ooooookay longpost time

first off: eh wtf, why is this on sneerclub? kinda awks. but I’ll try give it a fair and honest answer.

First, let me say that what broke me from the herd at lesswrong was specifically the calls for AI pauses.

look, congrats on breaking out, but uh… you’re still wearing the prison jumpsuit in the grocery store and that’s why people are looking at you weirdly

“yay you got out” but you got only half the reason right

take some time and read this

This seems deeply flawed

correct

But I do think advanced AI is possible

one note here: “plausible” vs “possible” are very divergent paths and likelihoods

in the Total Possible Space Of All Things That Might Ever Happen, of course it’s possible, but so are many, many other things

it seems like the problems current AI can’t solve, like robotics, continuous learning, module reuse - the things needed to reach a general level of capabilities and for AI to do many but not all human jobs - are near future

eh. this ties back to my opener - you’re still too convinced about something on essentially no grounded basis other than industry hype-optimism

I can link deepmind papers with all of these, published in 2022 or 2023.

look I don’t want to shock you but that’s basically what they get paid to do. and (perverse) incentives apply - of course goog isn’t just going to spend a couple decabillion then go “oh shit, hmm, we’ve reached the limits of what this can do. okay everyone, pack it in, we’re done with this one!”, they’re gonna keep trying to milk it to make some of those decabillions back. and there’s plenty of useful suckers out there

And if AI can be general and control robots, and since making robots is a task human technicians and other workers can do, this does mean a form of Singularity is possible. Maybe not the breathless utopia by Ray Kurzweil but a fuckton of robots.

okay this is a weird leap and it’s borderline LW shittery so I’m not going to spend much effort on it, but I’ll give you this

it doesn’t fucking matter.

even if we do somehow crack even the smallest bit of computational sentience, the plausibility of rapid acting self-reinforcing runaway self-improvement on such a thing is basically nil. we’re 3 years down the line on the Evergreen getting stuck in the suez and fabs shutting down (with downstream orders being cancelled) and as a result of it a number of chips are still effectively unobtanium (even if and when you have piles and piles of money to throw at the problem). multiple industries, worldwide, are all throwing fucking tons of money at the problem to try recover from the slightest little interruption in supply (and like, “slight”, it wasn’t even like fabs burned down or something, they just stopped shipping for a while)

just think of the utter scope of doing robotics. first you have to solve a whole bunch of design shit (which by itself involves a lot of from-principles directed innovation and inspiration and shit). then you have to figure out how to build the thing in a lab. then you have to scale it? which involves ordering thousounds of parts and SKUs from hundred of vendors. then find somewhere/somehow to assemble it? and firmware and iteration and all that shit?

this isn’t fucking age of ultron, and tony’s parking-space fab isn’t a real thing.

this outcome just isn’t fucking likely on any nearby horizon imo

So I was wondering what the people here generally think

we generally think the people who believe this are unintentional suckers or wilful grifters. idk what else to tell you? thought that was pretty clear

There are “boomer” forums I know of where they also generally deny AI is possible anytime soon, claim GPT-n is a stochastic parrot, and make fun of tech bros as being hypesters who collect 300k to edit javascript and drive Teslas*.

wat

I also have noticed that the whole rationalist schtick of “what is your probability” seems like asking for “joint probabilities”, aka smoke a joint and give a probability.

okay this gave me a momentary chuckle, and made me remember JRPhttp://darklab.org/jrp.txt (which is a fun little shitpost to know about)

from here, answering your questions as you asked them in order (and adding just my own detail in areas where others may not already have covered something)

1. no, not a fuck, not even slightly. definitely not with the current set of bozos at the helm or techniques as the foundation or path to it.

2. no, see above

3. who gives a shit? but seriously, no, see above. even if it did, perverse incentives and economic pressures from sweeping hand motion all this other shit stands a very strong chance to completely fuck it all up 60 ways to sunday

4. snore

5. if any of this happens at some point at all, the first few generations of it will probably look the same as all other technology ever - a force-multiplier with humans in the loop, doing things and making shit. and whatever happens in that phase will set the one on whatever follows so I’m not even going to try predict that

*“epistemic status”: I uh do work for a tech company, my job title is machine learning engineer, my girlfriend is much younger than me and sometimes fucks other dudes, and we have 2 Teslas…

…okay? congrats? is that fulfilling for you? does it make you happy?

not really sure why you mentioned the gf thing at all? there’s no social points to be won here

closing thoughts: really weird post yo. like, “5 yud-steered squirrels in a trenchcoat” weird.