geikei [none/use name]

They played a role in couping Khan but the military stooges put in place still moved the country closer to China than ever before. No matter how far cia ops and bribes go in Pakistan the sheer size and dependency and need for China in almost every way still wins out so Pakistan can and does act against US interests

Pakistan at this point is way to deep into China’s sphere of influence for US bribes and cia ops to move mountains. Like yeah the US played a role in khans arrest and overthrow but the following military junta still almost immediately and to this day did not take a single step away from China. On the contrary it deepened intergration and dependency radically. China is simply to big and too important for pakistan geopoliticaly, military and economicaly for them to be “on the poket of the cia” . Their entire state, economy and military deterents would collapse without continuously deepening relations with China through ways the US can simply can not or would not (due to india) provide. Cia ops , bribes etc are fine and all but 1. China can do them as well, especially in their backyard and 1. They end up secondary to the sheer economic and geopolitical impact China can throw around and offer Pakistan. The US can try to put compradors in place but ironically these compradors would end up moving the country closer to china regardless due to the actual reality and politics of having to run that country and keep their regional positioning.

There is a lot of plausible deniability in intelligence sharing so there is and will be a lot of wiggle room for China so it wouldnt surprise me if they do it or of they already have. No one is really focused on them in the grand sceme of things of this war compared to the scale and publicity of western intelligence operations and sharing in ukraine

I dont think so , platforms like these it seem way to way too overkill just to know some oil facility was bombed or that some blockade action was taken like 20 minutes earlier than they would otherwise . At the very least they are there to colllect data of cutting edge american platforms in deployment/use

@MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net apparently China just (not just , like 3 days ago) deployed 2x 815A electronic surveillance ships to the Persian Gulf which are some of their most modern platforms. They claimed its for antipiracy patrols but come on lol. So ,any thoughts on implications. Would it be just to pick up and collect data from f-35s and B2 deployments ? What intelligence/data sharing they could provide to iran, in real time or not, that can make a differenece defensively and offensively given whatever the capabilities iran still has. help with shot downs, ship targeting , early warning idk. Any change in movements and deployments they may force the US to do just by being there and the threat of the above?

A cope sci-fi scenario would be that China could position some j20 in bvr range or some AD battery hidden and actualy shot down a f35 or more so likely the bomber especially since the latter would have a predictable path to the nuclear site. Would the US missions even have awacs support themselves or would they be going in blind like Israel since Iran is a non threat for these platforms? Retrieving some wreckage would be very valuable for China tbh. Like if they shot smth down over iran how could the US even prove it? Iran would claim shotdown and the US would look like moron losers if they claimed china helped. Wont happen but its fun to imagine

vance wasnt even in the security meeting lmao loser

A lot of her own commentary and conclusions should be thrown out of the window but what should be taken more seriously is Iran’s own willingness, agency and urgency to become a close partner with China and the large missgivings it had in openning itself to inevitable chinese influence. And how that carries blame for their relationship with China not being in a position where China could or would do more. A lot of the examples she brings up through the thread are real indications of Iran dragging their feet, not trusting China, having a “we are a great power, not east not west and with no need to be in the sphere of influence of other greater powers, we got this” attitude and indecisiveness and not acting with the desperation, yes, their actual position. Either now or 5 years ago, China should not be more desperate for closer alliance, military or otherwise, than Iran itself is willing and desperate to seek the very same things from China.

Well its not a military partnership in any way. The fact that it was mainly Iran that was dragging its feet on the greenlighting of the comprehensive security partnership until they were literally being bombed and after the 8th time of “fell for it again award” regarding western diplomacy and attempt should throw some cold water both on the possibility of dirrect russian involvement and more so Iran’s on own urgency and internal political will to form close alliances (and yes dependencies) to Russia and China over the last whatever years

Some things they could try sure? Whole spectrum overstates it. Especially for stuff that could have immediate impact AND iran would cooperate with (or wanted to cooperate with for years now).

As far as military supplies go, its a question of what systems and how and if they can even be used. China running in to now give modern air defenses and aircrafts is unrealistic for multiple reasons. They would be useless to iranians without extensive months long training and a complicated intergrated ecosystem they operate under. Also with the degree of mossad penetration and Israel depth of opperations and the US joining in the chances these would fall into their hands are pretty high and at this stage of the game its something China wouldnt want. Giving Iran long range rockets and missiles (also launchers cause other wise its useless) isnt impossible but China’s rocket force is one of its greatest focuses given their needs and Taiwan and US placement in the pacific. Giving them in any large scale to Iran would have an impact in their magazine. Also they dont wanna speed up a Taiwan crisis by making sure US goes unhinged in the equipment and military stuff they send to Taiwan, where the US is still afraid to do any big moves. Drones, drone parts, electronics and material to build weapons are already sourced from China by iran in a large degree and we have no idea if they are picking up and it wouldnt be surprising if they are. Normal Ground war millitary stuff Iran doesnt even need as of now and if they do we will see if and what they source from China.

So other than that its either making nuclear threats or full on economic warfare against Israel and/or the US over this. For Israel i agree that they should have done so but i wonder if that could actualy make a large impact on israels war effort and economy on its own. I talked about it here https://hexbear.net/comment/6199174 . Basicaly without also sanctioning the US and the entire west AND all the useless arab countries Israel would most likely be held afloat by its patrons and get all the stuff it gets now from china by rerouting through like every other country in the world. Just stopping. Its not a normal country and not that big of an economy with the entire west subsidizing its entire existance already. And they obviously wont engage on an aggressive economic war with the US and the EU over iran and israel without even being sure it will succeed. They should try but its not some war stopping trap card, as sanctions rarely are

Literally no global south’s goverment was or is under any delusion that China would militarily intervene and fight a war against the US and Israel in Iran. No country was basing any amount of the relations it builts with China on any assumption that they would militarily intervene to defend them. What more most know that China doesnt even have the capability to do so in 90% of the globe currently. If China helps and doesn’t have the means to affect the concrete outcome by force in Iran that would be much worse for its credibility. Beyond military intervention any developing country wanting to create some deterence against the US and their allies can at this point can approach China and try to get in line to buy some non western modern military equipment. Or join some military coordination and tech sharing (for older stuff but still). If they really want to get under China’s sphere of influence and protection they can go to Beijing and ask to host Chinese military bases. I cant tell you how positive China’s response would be in each individual case and approachment but why tf would any country expect China to use military and economic force protect them if they dont attempt any of these stuff. I made a comment yesterday wondering if Iran even did these stuff earnestly or attempted and expected in any shape or form to have China intervene and help them militarily. Ah and iran also shows that China will trade with you even if you are under economic warfare from the west, which is more usual than actual invasions and matters to countries even more

The oil and blockade stuff quickly becomes irrelevant given the fact that China cant actualy be blockaded by the US or any allies the US can muster in any significant capacity and even if that was attempted it by definition would include blockading the entire EA from energy and other imputs as well, including Taiwan, Japan and worst Korea. Even if there is regime change and the US somehow manages to force all gulf nations plus new Iran to turn of the oil valve , or the US tries to close the straight of whatever, 90% of SEA and EA countries will implode months before China is even notably hurt by it with taiwan being first to. Its a scenario only for redditors. There are other reasons regarding changes in chinese oil needs, overseas routes and availability, rapid changes China can force domesticaly in a time of crisis that make it even less likely for China to be seriously hurt it even in that phantasy scenario

People here will say anything. Vietnam has like 5 times the militray cooperation and trade with Israel china has by this point. The latter is non existant. While the entire Iranian military production and electronics is based on trade with China. And thats ignoring of course more chinese weapons are in Iranian hands than Israeli ones by an order of magnitude. If iran wants to get to a training and purchase program for a significant amount jets and or air defenses they should have actualy tried to do that years ago. No reason to think they seriously did at any point. Instead they are getting a su-35 every two years

Can we treat Iran as a big boy regional power with remotely competent leadership and long historical consiousness and agency, look at their choices and approachments regarding military partenerships and buildup and factor that in on the where China or russia are currently, regarding capability and willlingness to directly intervene in iran. As well as where Iran currently stands militarily. Instead of treating it like some big baby that is being let down by its bigger “anti-imperialist” daddies?

Sure China’s willingness to intervene in military material, manpower and economic ways can be judged on its own but for that to even be possible we have to know the answer to some questions regarding Iran. Was iran ever open and ever attempted any level of meaningful military alliance with China? Even thought of hosting any military power or bases? Ever tried purchasing en mass any relevant Chinese systems and weapons? After the UN weapons sanctions/ limits or whatever ended in 2020?? iranian army and irgc generals and politcians visited China and Pakistan in official and unoffical capacities multiple times and inspected j-10c and JF-17s. Pakistan itself only procured them a couple of years before. After dragging their feet they made a su-35 deal with Russia AFTER the ukraine war started and have gotten ass as of yet. You cant actualy convince me with certainty that if they really wanted and were desperate for it that they couldnt have made some deals. We cant know details so its no use making accusations but its something to consider. Maybe it was distrust towards china and a pakistan like china dependency and “we got this” delusion, maybe to prioritize their proxies (keeping that bum assad in power and that state working probably cost them more than 100 j-10cs) in the region and domestic assymetric drone and missile capabilities. Maybe China said no no we cant cause US and israel said so but who knows.

What we do know is that Iran had its own views regarding own sovereignty, its military power and what and where it wanted to focus on and spend money and capital within its military strategism. And the urgency and type of approachments or proccurements it made regarding china and russia were a function of that as much as they were of what russia and china itself wanted or didnt want to do or give iran. Iran’s view of itself, the west and russia or china along with the internal factions pushing in different directions forged today’s Iran-Russia and Iran-China relations and relative standing just as much as China’s and Russians foreign policies did. Even for non military, strategic partnership cooperation agreements like the one Iran fast tracked and signed today with Russia. They were literally dragging their feet until they were getting bombed and US tanker aircraft are flying over the Atlantic toward the Middle East. Who’s to say irans government and strategism where not as much of a roadblock to some alt universe closer chinese relationship and cooperation that could have made a big difference in this scenario as China’s non interverntion or do nothing brainworms or whatever we are calling them.

Even right now as we speak, should China be more desperate to provide militarily help to Iran than Iran is desperate to seek that very same help from China. Are people really sure that the latter condition exists right now, let alone 2 or 5 years ago to a sufficient degree and that the former condition was the issue? What exactly people think Iran’s outlook and trust and effort for closer military and political alliance was towards China in recent years ? Their strategy and willingness to use and accept Chinece force and influence for their protection and regional aspirations?

And i repeat this should be judged irrispectively of China’s willingness or strategy to do the regional moves or alliances or sell the things iran did or did not, would or would not ask? And where one side stands is directly related to where the other choses to, it goes both ways

China has peacefully solved the vast majority of border and maritime disputes it found itself with at the establishment of the PRC. And they had that many to begin with because they were constucting and uniting a national and geographic entity that spend the previous 100+ years as a warlord and imperialism free for all with little centralized authority of formal border treaties with any of their neighbours while at the same time the entire region saw massive nation building and anti-colonial transformations around them. Even for the contested borders or claims it still has, its ignorant to mention it in this context.

China wont pre-emptively invade taiwan and never would, even under most of Mao’s reign. They dont expect Taiwan to be magicaly reunited. They will fight for, defeat the US over it and reunify the momment the US or Taiwan instigates an actual independence or military stationing related crisis and not over Pelosi visiting or whatever. If you dont believe they would or that they wouldnt beat the US to do it when push comes to shove because they didnt keep assad in power or because they wont fight a proxy war in Iran (where iran didnt and doesnt even want them to), whatever you are free to do so.

maybe the melting of the metal and composite materials of a modern plane after a crash would create textures like these. But yeah these videos are to be taken with a huge grain of salt

You should have an idea of what exactly does “china helping iran” in this context look like, how would china do it and what difference impact would it have. Give them a nuke ? Sci-fi. Send PLA troops en mass to fight in iran ? Through what logistics and come on now. Send modern aircraft and air defense systems ? Sure and did and will touch on that again but at this point its useless without months long training, systems intergration etc. Up their supply of electronics and components, metals etc necessary for military production to Iran? Who says they havent or wont? Sanction Israel? thats one of the most brought up points yeah.

So with the 2 bigger points. Firstly, that they havent already armed Iran with modern aircraft and ad systems that could have significantly stengthened their position, here is my comment from yesterday https://hexbear.net/comment/6243693

So like i actualy wonder, is there any indication that over the last 15-10-5 years or whatever Iran was open and actively sought any formal military alliance with China involving any Chinese large scale military strength being present in Iran or at the very least the purchase of modern aircraft/ air defense systems at scale? China would most likely oppose the former and based on what time the latter, but iranian and regional politics and trust are much different than that and iran is an actual regional power with agency on those matters and we have to look at how they used that agency and based on that judge the possibility or disappointment regarding chinese (in)actions. If iran itself didnt even have the approach descibed above how and why would they or anyone else expect China to have done anything regarding concrete military deterence through hardware or manpower in Iran. Iran seems to in part have chosen its own strategies and investment deterence wise and militray buildup wise and doupt anyone in iran’s goverment and army had any delusion regarding china or tried to built that deterence.

As far as sanctions to the entity over this or palestine i agree they should have done it and should do it. But how effective it would have been in detering israel or even not backfiring in the general balance of world backing of Israel idk, i had some thoughts here https://hexbear.net/comment/6199174

Not saying that the numbers quoted here are accurate but what do you think of this line of thinking pointing towards iran having a quite a bit more:

In 2003, with the help of North Korea, the Iranians incorporated the Shahab-3 missile, which has an almost 2,000 km range, into their arsenal. By 2005, they began producing it domestically.

Since then, twenty years have passed during which Iran has been producing and stockpiling missiles capable of reaching Israel. How can Iran have only 2,000-3,000 missiles? This is really a joke.

To give you an idea, North Korea began producing the KN-24 five years ago, and currently manufactures 200-300 missiles annually, all within a single class.

Today, Iran has about 15 missile classes capable of reaching Israel, including ballistic and cruise missiles. If the Koreans are manufacturing 200-300 missile of a single class, what about Iran with 15 class able to reach Israel?

It’s important to highlight that Iran is vastly wealthier than North Korea, with much more mineral resources, and currently has a much larger research and production infrastructure, combining public and private companies.

Iran is primarily a nation of missiles and drones; it does not possess a decent navy or aircraft, let alone high-quality armored vehicles. Its military efforts are focused on missile warfare, involving advanced radar and defense systems.

Intervene in what way? It cant and wont force project into iran in a sufficient scale to itself fight the US and israel. This is sci-fi. They may increase pressure on taiwan to the point that the US cant actualy focus and commit to iran. They would probably do that no matter how much they care about Iran’s “regime” falls or not. They may take advantage of that and make approachment plays with other regional actors. As far as hardware goes it would be useless to try and provide Iran with complex modern aircraft and AD systems that requite extensive networking and training. Satelite data for iran to target US navy ships? maybe?. An increase in drones and drone components and various assymetric weaponary reaching to iranian resistance and paramilitary (and army) groups. Possible. Coordinating with pakistan to do some nuclear saber rattling and intervening and setting up supply lines to iran where they reroute through third non state actor sources some basic stuff to Iran? idk maybe. Upping up economic pressure and controls in rare earth stuff etc to hurt america and force them hold back ? possible as well. Coordinating with Russia to up their support in Ukraine and Russia uping some support in Iran and/ or Yemen? possible as well

im not gonna lie and no offense this but idk to what i can respond to in this whole comment. “things may not be the way they seem because some other things also werent exactly like that and something opposite might have happened in another situations and some “bad” forces were underestimated and some good where underestimated and this tone sound like something some people who where wrong in another situation” is like, sure everything can and may be anything.

Any analysis that turned out wrong about some party’s relative standing in military and intelligence strength in a specific theater and situation may sound like any other analysis that turned out right. Should i not say and analyse things as i see them based on concrete hardware and tech trends and development and logistics ? If any positive and confident acessment china’s military development and relative balance of power (off its fucking shores no less) is unconvincing simply because Russia somewhat underperformed its “on paper” strength on some aspects of because mossad had spies and agents everywhere in shitass lebanese and iranian politics and everyday life and did looney tunes shit in incompetent, corrupt and split three ways arab states to fuck over axis of resistance groups i dont know if i can help that feeling and fear.

You can make your own judgements about the expansion, strength, hardware competency and technological edge of various PLA branches and PRC civil functions relative to american ones as it relates to a hot conflict on the pacific theater based on whatever you can find and on whatever assumptions and relavant lessons you think Ukraine or Israel teaches us. I never based anything of what i said in a percieved incompetence of the US military or any definite inferiority they hold on paper right now compared to China. On the contrary the US military holds many advantages on a lot if not most sectors still on paper. What i said relates to the specific most likely scenario of a US engagemnt with China and against some assumptions the original comments made. China would get its ass beat by the US 5 times worse in any engagement of american shores and in 80% of the world right now than what even an optimistic US defeat to china in the pacific theater in idk 2028 would look like. But it doesnt matter because my analysis only applies in a specific theater with specific innarguable advantages and disadvangaes, with armed forces and magazine build and massively expanded for specific purposes, based on hard numbers of trends in production, technology and all around capabilities

(exaggerating here) Sure the CIA could activate 10k shanghai and chengdu liberal secret cells and do operation spiderweb or whatever on Chinese airbases and ports and pla generals and pollituburo members may be car bombed by rigged BYD electric batteries. Sure the US navy lobbing tomahawks on Yemen and dodging drones and missiles a decade behind what China fields or them idk destroying some incompent arab state armies 20 years ago may actualy be the deciding experience factor against China. Or the US may reverse trends in missile development or any type of procurement with some big discovery and that makes some decisive chinese advantage or build up useless. I cant lie and do a disclaimer that china may in fact not be holding the decisive upper hand in the near future in any conlict in the pacific because of any of that

I took that angle because given Chinas global trade and foreign policy in the last few decades, its the way way more realistic way for China to make a decisive impact in the balance of power in the region in favor of iran and against israel. By taking advantage of and zeroing on what iran could buy, trade, smuggle and collaborate with china militarily, not hoping china to stop trading with Israel in commercially. Its much more realistic for iran to greatly strengthen their position against israel by taking advantage of china that way and chase that at all costs than to achieve an equal and sustained weaken of israels position by expecting china to sanction them while 95% of the arab world doesnt give a shit to

As far as the latter and the question of how much it would even work i had some thoughts here. https://hexbear.net/comment/6199174